India's Network for Climate Change Assessment’s (INCCA) report indicating a net increase in annual temperature by 1.7 to 2 degrees by the year 2030 sounds an alarm for the country’s’ farmers. The susceptibility of Indian agriculture to climate change is well accepted even in the past, but its impact on the small and marginal famers is not highlighted fully. Those who are largely dependent on rain fed farming for sustenance will suffer the most as aberrant rains, drought cycles and falling soil health will compound their problems.

Drought is a problem in 45% of the world’s geographical area where 38% of the world’s population lives. Over 6% of the world’s land is affected by either salinity or sodicity (FAO). Extreme climatic and physical conditions limit the utilization of land for agricultural purpose and compound the problems of farmers. Over 55% of the net sown area in our country lacks irrigation facilities and, hence farmers rely wholly on rain water for crop growth. Water deficit is the most important abiotic stress affecting the production of crops like maize and rice. Nearly 6.7 million hectares of farmland in the country has been affected by salinity ingress, with Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra having the highest percentage of affected land area. If these factors are not addressed in time, agriculture output may not be able to feed the country’s population, adding to the woes of 37 percent of the population which is already below the poverty line.

Agricultural experts indicate that a 1 degree C increase in temperature may reduce the yields of crops like wheat, soybean, and potato by 3-7%. Losses recorded will be much higher at higher temperatures. The productivity of most crops is likely to decrease only marginally by 2020 but could decline by 10-40% by 2100. What this means is, that despite currently over-using and at times abusing our natural resources we are still unable to ensure pesticide residue free food, adequate grains for all and economic benefits for over half our country’s population. This situation will only worsen now and we may witness too frequent repeats of the heat wave of 2003, prolonged dry spells of 2004 and the unusual floods of 2005. According to ICAR data and the climate change expert’s predictions crop yields are likely to reduce between 4.5 and 9 per cent due to climate change by 2039. Over the long run, the projected figures are even scarier with crop yields expected to fall by 25 percent or more by 2099.

With increased pressure on limited resources, boosting yields in cereals, vegetables and oilseed crops is crucial to meet our present and future food needs. In the face of extreme temperatures, increased crop losses to pests and inability to grow more crops per drop science alone can come to our rescue to fulfill the dream of food security in the new millennia.

With the world’s population expected to reach 8.0 billion by 2025, meeting the food security needs and alleviating burdens of famers will be biggest challenges for policy makers. We urgently need to forego short term thinking, and work for an agriculture system which has a strong foundation in sustainable practices.

Leaving crop cultivation vulnerable to climate change which seems very likely in the near future will be a blunder. Time to act is now, to ensure we invest in research for future technologies, leverage developments in science and ensure farmers reap socio-economic benefits.

Biotechnology offers many advantages over the traditional techniques of plant breeding and possible solutions to previously intractable problems and difficult targets such as drought tolerance, higher yield and optimizing crops for human and animal nutritional requirements. Leveraging the new tools of biotechnology will be one of the key factors to achieve the goals of development, food security in face of climate change and preserve the quality of the environment.

Government agencies, agricultural bodies should come together to drive research and focus on developing crops which enhance productivity while growing with less water (water use efficient crops), less fertilizer (particularly N and P), and with the ability to grow in saline soils. Ultimately the farmer needs high yielding varieties/hybrids which are not affected by environmental conditions and the consumers need food without limited supply driving the prices out of reach.

Building on the successful examples of biotechnology crops like Bt cotton in India, we need to continually work to provide the best combination of conventional genetics and biotechnology to accomplish our dream of food and nutritional security for all.